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Justy at your Subaru dealers today. The Illinois primary.
How many think you ought to have a choice in the Republican Party?
Who says nice guys finish last?
We're going to go on from here. I think it establishes this candidacy as the one that
continues to do well across the board. We're not going to win them all.
This is a new beginning for the Paul Simon candidate.
Perhaps thrust Paul Simon back into the race thrust me into the leadership of
the race. How much closer does it bring us to the final choices? Good evening I'm
Ted Koppel and this is Nightline. Joining us tonight as we look at the
Illinois Returns, a Democrat who's not in the presidential race but who many
believe is the only one in his party who could win it. New York Governor Mario
Cuomo.
This is ABC News Nightline reporting from Washington. Ted Koppel. In Illinois
today on the Republican side it was a rout. Democratic voters meanwhile have
sowed a little more confusion. Political modesty will preclude his conceding the
point but it may prove that our main guest tonight will be the ultimate
beneficiary of all that confusion. More on the charismatic non-candidate from New
York Mario Cuomo a little later. First the results from Illinois and we go to
our election headquarters in New York and my colleague Peter Jennings. Peter.
Ted there have been no great surprises in the Illinois primary. The Illinois candidates
have won on the Democratic side and Vice President Bush has displayed the same
kind of strength in this Midwestern state as he did in the South on Super
Tuesday. Let's look at the raw vote as of now. When Vice President Bush saw these
results tonight he said who says nice guys finish last. It has been a
convincing victory. In the results for Bob Dole some example of why all the
pressure for him to drop out of the race. Dole does not heed the advice. He had
nothing to say tonight and he has been campaigning today in Wisconsin and
Connecticut. In the overall race for delegates with what he has won tonight
George Bush makes it look less like a race all the time. He needs 1,139 to
actually lock up the nomination. On the Democratic side Senator Paul Simon of
Illinois has done as well here as he has done badly elsewhere. The senator did not
even contest Super Tuesday. What you see here in part is voting for influence of
the Democratic convention in Atlanta this summer. Many of Simon's voters don't
even expect him to win the nomination. Once again the Reverend Jesse Jackson
has benefited from a very influential black vote this time in Chicago and he
adds to the influence he will have when the Democrats convene this summer.
Governor Michael Dukakis had been looking for a respectable third and he
appears to have it. He must still be regarded as the Democratic front-runner
largely because Senator Gore and Congressman Gephardt have not done very
well in Illinois. As for Democratic delegates Senator Simon gets the lion
share tonight but because Governor Dukakis has been consistently successful
in other regions of the country he continues to have the larger share. A
Democratic candidate needs 2,082 delegates to secure the nomination. So
this is what the raw vote tells us. Our exit polls tell us how and why. Joining
us our political director Hal Bruno. Hal if you will fill in some of the blanks.
Well Peter, Vice President Bush won just about every type of Republican voter
tonight, men and women of all ages. Of the Republican voters 72 percent believe
that Bush has the best chance to win in November. Only 24 percent feel that way
about Senator Doe who's been claiming that he's more electable. On the
Democratic side Paul Simon won but only 40 percent of those who voted for him
think he can win in November. In contrast an overwhelming majority of those who
voted for Jesse Jackson and Michael Dukakis strongly believe that their
candidate can be a winner in the fall election. So it's clear that Simon's
Illinois victory is based on loyalty to a favorite son. Jackson also benefited
from being a favorite son. He won 91 percent of the black vote which accounts
for a quarter of the Democratic electorate in Illinois. But unlike some
previous primaries this year Jackson did not do as well with white voters pulling
only 8 percent in his adopted home state. There was really a case of two local
boys making good and the Democratic picture remains as muddled as ever.
Thanks, how very much muddled and as of now something of a problem for the
Democratic voters take a look at who has done what where when it comes to winning
states. Governor Dukakis of Massachusetts have 12 states. Jesse Jackson who's done
quite well tonight has seven states. Senator Gore of Tennessee who won his
home state and six others won all those on Super Tuesday and Richard Gepphardt
has won three states. Now when the results were in from last Tuesday, Super
Tuesday, someone observed that the Democrats were at least flying in
formation. As Jeff Greenfield reports the danger for the Democratic Party is that
everybody's gonna land in Atlanta at the same time and absolutely nothing will be
resolved. It doesn't take a crystal ball or even a pole to figure that the
Democrats face a long tough fight to pick their nominee. All it really takes
is some simple arithmetic. After tonight some 1,958 delegates will have been
chosen with about 2,200 left to be picked. After tonight no candidate will
have more than 600. So in order to wrap up a first ballot nomination by the time
the primaries end on June 7th, Mike Dukakis or Jesse Jackson would need to
win roughly 1,500 of the remaining delegates. The other candidates would
need even more and the road is even harder than that. Thanks to all those
reforms the Democrats adopted in the 1970s, just about every state allocates
delegates through proportional representation. If you win 50% of the
vote you get about 50% of the delegates. There are no winner-take-all states
where a candidate can sweep up a huge delegate block with a narrow win the way
George McGovern did in California in 1972. Now throw in Jesse Jackson who's
all but certain to pick up at least 20% of the remaining delegates. That means
that Dukakis would need about four of every five remaining primary delegates.
Highly.