Newsbreak brought to you by National Mutual.
Good evening, a close poll in the Nundah by-election with a result now not likely for days.
While the ALP is in front, it suffered a swing of up to 7% away from the Government.
At ALP headquarters, campaign director Wayne Swan conceded its neck and neck.
Nundah is too close to call.
There has been a swing against the Government, but that swing has not gone directly to the Liberal Party.
It has gone into the independent pile and a large slice of that is flowing back to the Labor Party.
There is a swing against the Government on two-party preferred terms of the order of 6 or 7%
and that therefore means it is too close to call.
We believe, however, that when section votes are counted it will be very close,
but we are cautiously confident that we may go across the line,
but it is far too early for the Labor Party, the Liberal Party or anybody else to be claiming victory or defeat this evening.
You could not have had a worse set of circumstances than those that we have had over the last fortnight in this by-election campaign
and I believe if we go across the line it will be a very, very credible result for the Government
and particularly for the Premier.
We have fought this by-election in the worst possible circumstances
given the Federal factors that have occurred in the last fortnight,
the unemployment figures and the general pessimism about the state of the Nation.
I could not think of a worse environment in which to fight a by-election.
There is always a swing against Governments at by-elections.
It is always of the order of at least 5 to 8% and in recent times in by-elections across Australia the swings have been much, much bigger.
We have come to expect in by-elections swings against Governments of 15 to 20%.
Now that has not occurred in this by-election.
In Toowoomba South meanwhile the National Party has claimed victory with 38.5% of the primary vote.
We will have another by-election update in one hour.